Today marks a monumental day for Guinevere, our daughter of Justify, as she makes her debut in the 5th race at Turfway Park. The one-mile maiden special weight drew a full field of 12 horses with Guinevere in post position #1.
Trainer Wesley Ward is known for winning on debut mainly with two-year-olds and is more than capable of getting it done with older horses as well. From a sample size of 29, Ward strikes at 24% with 3yo first-time starters. Our filly has had plenty of foundation (ten breezes) put into her which makes the route of ground not of concern. With that said, a debut around two turns is never an easy task. Over the last few weeks, reports have been positive from Ward regarding Guinevere’s morning activity and it seems she has taken a step forward. Her sire, Justify, continues to impress and is advertised as the best young sire in the world. Already with five G1 winners, it starts even before then with a 17% win rate on debut and he is capable of producing a horse that runs on any surface. As impressive as they have been early on, they seem to only get better with time.
Of course, we hope Guinevere starts her career off with a bang but anything can happen on debut. Breaking from the one hole, it would be ideal to get out of the gates alertly. Going around two turns, the rail draw is less of a factor but we would prefer to see her involved in the race and have to overcome the least amount possible. Abel Cedillo who recently moved his tack from CA to KY will be in the irons. Ward and Cedillo have teamed up for one win in only two starts but by no surprise Cedillo has made a quick impact at Turfway, winning at 17% from his last 100 starts.
Guinevere has been slated as the morning-line second choice with odds of 4-1. There are a few interesting horses in the field which you can read more about below, but the clear horse to beat will be #9 Moonlight Gambler. She holds a major class and experience edge over us and the majority of the field. If Moonlight Gambler comes back firing off a brief break, she “should” be tough to beat.
We wish Guinevere the a safe and productive first race!
About the competition:
#2 Spellcheck (9/2): Daughter of Candy Ride has two elongated sprints under her belt and should appreciate the added distance. Her dam was a MSW winner going long on the turf at Del Mar.
#3 Winnable (12/1): Another well-bred Justify filly making her debut around two turns. Was entered back in November but was scratched. Disappeared from the work tab for 55 days and has only had five works leading up to this. While she likely didn’t leave training during that time, from a fitness standpoint this one may be a bit short.
#4 My Sexy Blonde (20/1): Unsuccessful in two tries. Lacks any speed and would need to get much faster.
#5 Pink Moon (20/1): Did no running on debut when sprinting but it was a very live race. The winner, Nice as Pie, returned to not only win a first-level allowance but also the Valdale S. on Feb. 10th. The runner-up, Poolside With Slim returned to win impressively on the stretch-out at Gulfstream and the third-place finisher Fantastical also returned to win on the stretch-out at Turfway. Would still need to see a completely different horse but she will get Lasix, blinkers, and a route of ground which could change the result.
#6 Waggle Pass (15/1): Was second most recently when running for Md $50,000. The added ground should benefit her but concerns she is simply a notch below.
SCRATCHED #7 Aldora (5/1): Exits the same race as Pink Moon (see above). Race two back was very solid but three of four starts have not been good. A little surprised with the morning line odds but this is another well-bred filly who should appreciate the return to two turns.
#8 Stakeout (8/1): Interesting runner for Godolphin. Was fifth on debut when sprinting, has come back to work well, and gets Lasix in career start number two. Worth a look at the price.
#9 Moonlight Gambler (3/1): The class of the field and the one to beat. Was fifth in the G2 Jessamine last Fall and was very competitive at the MSW level.
SCRATCHED #10 Nellie Thursday (12/1): FTS (first-time starter) by Lemon Drop Kid. Not surprising she is starting around two turns but the DeVaux barn has been cold this meet. The barn is capable of winning on debut and strikes at 11% debut at a mile or more. Leaning to watch one.
#11 Toffee Apple (12/1): Debut effort was very good but failed to repeat it in her next start. Still needs to be respected given that debut and her dam was a talented runner for Chad Brown who likely never got to show her true potential due to setbacks. Was a MSW winner at the Spa around two turns on grass.
#12 Sharper Gal (20/1): Has done zero running in two starts. Would need to change things around completely.
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