Derby Point Standings - Where's Ceasar?

It was a huge day today with four Kentucky Derby prep races at tracks across the country. All of these preps come with 20 Derby points for the winner, 10 for second, 6 for third, 4 for 4th, and 2 for 5th. 

YES, Seize The Grey is still on the list, though he has dropped in rank due to being freshened (rested) before beginning his 3YO season. This could possibly work in his advantage in the long run, since he has now had a break and has the next three months to earn points. 

After his Iroquois Stakes finish, which was the first Kentucky Derby prep race, he was ranked in the top 20 which would have put him into the gate for the Kentucky Derby (had it been run last Fall), but during his freshening, other horses continued to compete in Derby prep races and earn points, moving him down in rank. 

We don't yet know if he'll be part of the mix in later preps this year, but if he comes back to train and run well, he'll have a shot. 

One thing to note is that the Derby prep races later in the year actually carry more points. Beginning February 17th, the next round of prep stakes including the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park (where Seize The Grey is located) bumps the points awarded up to 50-25-15-10-5. 

Then on March 23rd, the points for most Derby prep races will go to 100-50-30-20-10. (The one exception is the Sunland Park Derby here in New Mexico, which has been downgraded to 50 points etc. for 2024, but there is very little chance that Seize The Grey would run in New Mexico). These stakes races include the Arkansas Derby, which is also held at Oaklawn Park, where he's located.

Here's a look at the point changes for Kentucky Derby Prep races run today, February 3rd.

Withers Stakes - Aqueduct - 1 and 1/8th mile distance

1st - Uncle Heavy - 20 points

2nd - El Grande O - 10 points

3rd - Lightline - 6 points

4th - Deposition - 4 points

5th - Khanate - 2 points

An interesting side note is that the second place finisher, El Grande O, is sired by Take Charge Indy, the half-brother to Secret Crush's dam, Elarose.  

Robert B. Lewis Stakes - Santa Anita - 1 mile

1st    Nysos - 0 points (*No points awarded. See notes below.) 

2nd   Wine Me Up - 0 points (*No points awarded. See notes below) 

3rd   Scatify - 6 points 

4th    Mc Vay - 4  points

5th    Moonlit Sonata - 2 points

*The following horses can't earn Derby points regardless of where they finish in prep races: Muth, Nysos, Wine Me Up, Prince of Monaco, Wynstock, Coach Prime.

Southwest Stakes - Oaklawn Park - 1 and 1/16th mile

1st    Mystic Dan - 20 points

2nd   Just Steel* - 10 points

3rd    Liberal Arts**  - 6 points

4th    Awesome Road - 4 points

5th    Common Defense - 2 points

Note: Otto The Conquerer and Carbone also finished but earned no points after 5th.

*This race really had our attention! Just Steel (Justify) was entered who may ring a bell because he was formerly Seize The Grey's work mate and is his current stable mate, also being trained by D. Wayne Lukas. Just Steel did indeed take the lead heading into the stretch, but he was overtaken by Mystic Dan who made a huge move in late stretch to draw away from the field by many lengths. Just Steel (who we were cheering for!) finished second for 10 additional points which we believe moves him from 17th to 11th position on the leader board! 

**Liberal Arts has met Seize The Grey twice before on the track. The first time was in "Ceasar's" first start, where Ceasar ran 8th and Liberal Arts ran 2nd to the winner Edified (Tapit). The second time they met, in the G3 Iroquois Stakes, Liberal Arts ran 3rd to Seize The Grey's 4th. Liberal Arts should be moving from the 5th to the 3rd spot after today's 3rd place finish. 

Holy Bull Stakes - Gulfstream Park - 1 and 1/16th mile

1st    Hades - 20 points

2nd   Domestic Product - 10 points

3rd    Fierceness - 6 points

4th    Inveigled - 4 points

5th    Dancing Groom - 2 points

Note: Fierceness was the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner, the Eclipse 2YO Champion Colt and a millionaire as of the close of his 2YO year, and was the huge favorite in this race and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He was soundly defeated today by the very talented Hades, and also passed by Domestic Product. However, his 3rd place finish keeps him at the top of the board when the 6 points are added to the 30 he's already earned.

The Leaderboard Top 20 (Prior to Today)

Leaderboard Prior to Today (Top 20)

30    Fierceness

30    Track Phantom

19    Locked

16    Timberlake

13    Liberal Arts

13    Nash

11    West Saratoga

10    Honor Marie

10    Otto the Conqueror

10    Dornoch

10    Catching Freedom

8    Risk It

7    Moonlight

6    Informed Patriot

6    Lat Long

5    The Wine Steward

5    Just Steel

5    Glengarry

5    General Partner

5    Real Men Violin

With today's races, the early Kentucky Derby standings will change once again as the winners/placers move up in points or are added to the list for the first time, and former leaders fall further down the list. Here's what we believe the new list will reflect when it's updated with today's results. 

Leaderboard AFTER Today's 4 Prep Races (Estimated)

36    Fierceness  (30 + 6)

30    Track Phantom

20    Mystic Dan

20    Hades

20    Uncle Heavy

19    Locked

19    Liberal Arts (13 + 6)

16    Timberlake

15    Just Steel (5 + 10)

15    El Grande O (5 + 10)

13    Nash

11    West Saratoga

10    Honor Marie

10    Otto the Conqueror

10    Dornoch

10    Catching Freedom

10    Domestic Product

8    Risk It

7    Moonlight

6    Informed Patriot

6    Lightline

6    Scatify (+ 6)

6    Lat Long

5    The Wine Steward

5    Glengarry

5    General Partner

5    Real Men Violin

EDITED TO ADD - THE LIST IS NOW OFFICIALLY UPDATED (SEE BELOW) SO I'LL MAKE ANY CORRECTIONS TO MY LIST ABOVE.