Saturday marks an exciting moment and opportunity for Seize the Grey and his owners as he attempts to lock in his spot in the starting gate in Kentucky Derby 150. The son of Arrogate will take on eleven rivals in the 12th race at Turfway Park, the $700K G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Post time is approximately 6:25 p.m. ET. As with any graded stakes race, and in this case one with Kentucky Derby points on the line, it is a competitive field of 3-year-olds. Seize the Grey drew post nine and will be piloted by Nik Juarez, who was aboard for his comeback victory at Oaklawn Park one month ago.
See below for a closer look at the field.
#1 Freedom Principle (30-1): A stakes winner at two over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta, but has failed to fire at three in two turf attempts. At long odds, he’s worth a look given past success over a similar surface.
#2 Dancing Groom (20-1): An impressive MSW winner at the Spa as a 2-year-old and a distant third downstate in the G1 Champagne. Since graduating, he has been thrown in against some tough competition, facing graded stakes company in his four subsequent starts. Hard to back him given his last three efforts, but put in a sharp work over the Tapeta at Gulfstream as a final prep and picks up Frankie Dettori.
#3 Lucky Jeremy (8-1): Son of Lookin At Lucky is in sharp form, but is facing a deeper field come Sunday. Take nothing away from the winner of the Sunland Derby, who invaded from CA following defeats behind Nysos and Wynstock. This will be his first try on the all-weather surface, but on pedigree he should handle it. The likely pacesetter.
#4 Noted (10-1): Flopped as the chalk in his most recent start in the G3 Kitten's Joy. Dual surface stakes winner, but has never seen the synthetic. If Pletcher and Saez struck at 10-1 ML odds would you be shocked? We’ll leave it at that.
#5 Agate Road (7-2): Cross-entered at Fair Grounds, and recent reports on social media suggest he'll be heading to NOLA. If he does show up here, however, he must certainly be respected. He's a two-time winner on turf including the G2 Pilgrim at two, so you would have to expect he will handle the surface.
#6 Northern Flame (5-1): Third in the G2 Rebel, finishing in front of the runner directly to his outside here. Will be tactically placed and has enough early foot to contest the lead if need be. His two wins have been in wire-to-wire fashion, so perhaps that is what he needs, but would expect him to receive plenty of early pressure. On an improving pattern and has to be respected, but he’s a play against for us given the expected trip.
#7 Woodcourt (8-1): Was just a $50K claim three starts ago and will now have an opportunity to earn a run for the roses (though he's not Triple Crown nominated). Respectable attempt in the G2 Rebel, finishing six back from Timberlake. He is a winner over the surface and clearly on the improve, but our gut says he’s still a notch below.
#8 Otello (15-1): Least experienced runner in the field. Is a stakes winner, but failed to fire in his graded stakes debut, which was also his two-turn debut. The runner-up of the G3 Holy Bull returned to win the Tampa Bay Derby. Don’t completely discount.
#9 Seize the Grey (6-1): Impressed at Oaklawn Park in an N1X in his sophomore debut. Regardless of the level of competition he faced, to be able to perform as he did with as limited of a work tab as he had speaks volumes. This effort also produced career-best Ragozin (12 3/4) and Beyer (82) figures. D. Wayne Lukas has raved about his training since the race, which has included three five-furlong drills capped off by 1:00.60 work on Monday. Will lose Lasix on Saturday as he returns to a stakes race, but this was never an issue as a 2-year-old. We would have to expect he is only going to improve in this second start off the bench and with even a slight improvement he is a serious contender.
#10 Endlessly (5-2): Southern California invader began his career three-for-three, suffering his first loss in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He returned with a win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate over Tapeta and this nine-furlong distance, but did have to work hard for it. Earned a career-best BSF of 87, which is the best of the field, and that race has produced three next-out winners, albeit in much softer spots. He is the deserving favorite.
#11 Baytown Chatterbox (50-1): The longest shot in the field for good reason. Doesn’t seem to have much business being in here.
#12 West Saratoga (20-1): Winner of the G3 Iroquois against Seize the Grey back in September, but has dropped off form of late. He did run a respectable third in the G3 Sam F. Davis but will still need to improve to win this.
NOTE: After this was posted, Agate Road is expected to scratch and run in a different Derby prep, and one of the Also Eligibles is expected to move into the field.
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