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Friday, March 8, 2024

Catalyst Analysis for Start #3

Catalyst will return in the starting gate this coming Saturday in Oaklawn Park’s 6th race, a maiden special weight going one mile on the dirt. Your daughter of Gun Runner drew post 4 and will be ridden by Luis Fuentes. This looks to be another wide-open maiden special weight event and a good opportunity for Catalyst to be competitive. 

As we reported previously, trainer Steve Asmussen still feels additional ground will benefit her even more but we have to roll with the options in front of us.

With two races now under her belt, she has gained plenty of experience and should be sitting on her best effort yet. She broke alertly most recently, allowing her to get a tactical position before running into a traffic jam. Based on the field, it would be expected to see her in a tactical position again and hopefully, with clean running, we will see yet another improvement in career start #3.

Come Saturday, the track conditions may be wet as the Hot Springs area is receiving rain throughout the day and tomorrow. Catalyst has been slated as the co-third choice on the morning line with odds of 5/1. Good luck to all owners!

About the competition:

#1 Under the Palms (10/1): Hot barn brings this daughter of Enticed back from a 6-month layoff. Will get Lasix for the first time and one of the barn’s go-to riders, Julien Leparoux, has the mount.

#2 Taker Back (30/1): Was beaten 19+ lengths on debut for maiden claiming $30,000. New barn wins at 4% off of the claim. Hard to see this one having a chance.

#3 Flashy Dancer (8/5): Well-bred filly makes her debut around two turns for trainer Brad Cox. There are two siblings to note; Hot Rumor who was a winner at a mile in her second career start and Hit Show was a debut winner going seven furlongs at Keeneland. A.m. activity just looks ok but still have to expect this one to have ability.

#5 Little Jamie (6/1): Four-time loser has shown glimpses of ability and while she has some of the best speed figures in the field, it will likely take a career best to win this BSF to win this race.

#6 Lady Ariel (5/1): Catalyst’s stablemate debuted over a muddy track at the Fair Grounds. Breezed four times since at Oaklawn giving her plenty of time to acclimate.

#7 Suena (30/1): Delta Downs invader will need to pick things up significantly in start number two. Pass.

#8 Amy Z (9/2): Disappointed most recently following a stretch of three good races. Returned right back to the work tab and capped off a series of works with a bullet five-eighths in 1:00 flat. Will be pressing the pace early but questioning if she will be around late.

#9 Ava Moon Pie (12/1): First-time starter from the McPeek barn. Blew out from the gate a few days ago so expect this one to be on the engine early pending a clean break. Mcpeek only strikes at 7% when debuting at 1M+. Not sure which way to lean here.

#10 Social Affair (30/1): The daughter of Munning’s was freshened have three bad efforts. It’s hard to give this filly any look but D. Wayne Lukas is certainly capable of a surprise and this would be.

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