Saturday’s G1 Preakness S. field got a major shake-up on Wednesday when it was announced that expected favorite Muth would be forced to scratch due to a fever, and now eight runners will race to claim the Woodlawn Vase.
Among that group, of course, is your very own Seize the Grey, who enters the 149th Preakness off a career-best effort when showing good cruising speed en route to a mild upset in the G2 Pat Day Mile. Looking to give Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas his seventh Preakness title, your son of Arrogate could find himself in an advantageous stalking position pressing Bob Baffert’s remaining runner, Imagination. He’ll still need to get faster to defeat the likes of G1 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, but Seize the Grey continues to improve incrementally and is the type of fresh face who can jump up and pull off the upset here, even without the benefit of a longer gap between races that new shooters typically have in the Preakness.
Best of luck to all of Seize the Grey’s owners in this extremely rare and exciting opportunity to compete in a Triple Crown race, and see below for more on the competition.
#1 Mugatu (20/1) - Wasn’t quite able to make it into the Derby, where he would have been seriously overmatched. Did run his best race switching to dirt last time, but will need another huge step forward to have any chance for better than a minor award.
#2 Uncle Heavy (20/1) - Pennyslvania-bred got his nose down on the line in Aqueduct’s nine-furlong G3 Withers S. in February, but that effort came in the slop over a subpar group. Could only manage a distant fifth in the G2 Wood Memorial, and again that has not been a race that’s been flattered subsequently—the one-two finishers were sixth and sixteenth, respectively, in the Derby.
#3 Catching Freedom (6/1) - Last-to-first G2 Louisiana Derby winner put in another solid stretch run to be fourth in the Derby. Makes sense for sure, though have to wonder if he’ll get the set up he needs to pass them all late.
#4 Muth - scratched
#5 Mystik Dan (5/2) - Belied 18/1 odds in Louisville, and certainly won’t be anywhere close to that kind of price this time, especially with the defection of his main competition. In hindsight, most handicappers were probably a bit too tough on his third in the G1 Arkansas Derby and maybe dismissed his G3 Southwest romp as mud-aided. Something close to his Derby effort will make him super tough, though it is noteworthy that he didn’t run well once before off of short rest and trainer Kenny McPeek voiced some concern about the short turnaround to Baltimore immediately after the Derby win.
#6 Seize The Grey (15/1)
#7 Just Steel (15/1) - Seize the Grey’s stablemate looks to bounce back after showing brief speed and fading to 17th in the Derby. He’ll be a longshot, but there are some things to like. He split Muth and Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby; will be reunited with top jockey Joel Rosario (no Preakness wins yet himself), who rode him to both of his prior victories; and his current form is a bit reminiscent of Lukas’s 2013 Preakness winner Oxbow.
#8 Tuscan Gold (8/1) - Was already looking like the “wise guy” horse of the race before the scratch of Muth, and now he might vie for second choice. The $600K son of GSW Curlin mare Valadorna romped second out at Gulfstream in January, then was spotted aggressively in the G2 Louisiana Derby, where he was far from disgraced in third after a wide, stalking trip while earning a solid 95 Beyer Speed Figure. He has every right to take another step forward here for a Chad Brown barn that has won two of the last seven Preaknesses with horses who fit extremely similar profiles (on-the-board finish in final round Derby prep, but skipped the first Saturday in May).
#9 Imagination (6/1) - Seven-figure son of Into Mischief carries the torch for Bob Baffert as the Hall of Famer looks to add to his record eight Preakness wins and go back-to-back for an overlapping ownership group. The two graded preps he exits in California were decidedly soft, but he’s got a chance to clear off from the start and never look back. His past performances don’t look too different from last year’s winner National Treasure and it’s only going to take an effort in that ballpark to get the job done here.
[Seize The Grey ownership graphic designed by partner Leesha Davis.]
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